中国自然保护地规划的回顾与对比研究

中国自然保护地历经60余年的发展，形成了多部门主导、保护类型多样的自然保护地体系。面对机构改革和以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系建立的契机，传统规划的经验积累为新规划体系的构建提供了借鉴的可能。通过回溯机构改革前各类自然保护地规划，对比分析其规划结构体系，并从人地关系视角切入，分析各类规划针对保护对象、保护利用强度,以及社会发展调控上的差异，总结各类自然保护地规划的既有经验，为新时期规划体系的重构提供支撑。     

基于POI提取的山地丘陵区乡村旅游空间分布研究*——以重庆市农家乐为例

［目的］通过大数据研究山地丘陵区乡村旅游的空间分布现状及规律，为乡村旅游规划提供参考借鉴。［方法］基于POI抓取技术，以2018年9月抓取到的重庆市1 644家农家乐为研究对象，结合各种地理基础数据资料，借助GIS分析手段，采用最近邻指数、K函数、核密度估计、Getis Ord Gi*热点分析和Moran′s I指数对重庆市农家乐空间分布特征进行研究。［结果］（1）重庆市农家乐分布整体呈现显著聚集趋势，空间自相关性显著； 主城区为聚集—随机分布，空间自相关性不显著； （2）市域范围农家乐聚集程度随空间尺度的增大而增强，主城区特征空间尺度为2139km； （3）农家乐在中部主城区集中连片分布，在主城外零散分布； （4）全市农家乐分布热点区域集中在中南部； （5）7044%的农家乐分布在距城市中心120km的范围内； （6）767%的农家乐分布在A级景区周边10km范围内，且倾向于分布在自然类景区和高等级景区周边； （7）中海拔地区为农家乐分布的主要区域。［结论］提出针对性的改善建议，以优化农家乐产业布局，促进乡村旅游发展与生态文明建设充分结合，更好助力乡村振兴。     

Moral hazard and subsidized crop insurance

Along with adverse selection, moral hazard is one of the major hurdles that private and public insurance plans must contend with. Moral hazard occurs if risks are endogenous to a producer's behavior and if the insurer is unable to properly monitor the insured. We review the role of moral hazard in the US crop insurance program. We conduct an empirical analysis of one important aspect of the US crop insurance program—prevented planting. This provision provides indemnity payments if conditions are not suitable for planting. The program has been the subject of considerable controversy, especially during 2019, when the rate of claims is expected to be especially high. Because loss adjustors may encounter difficulties in assessing the weather conditions associated with prevented planting claims, the program is susceptible to moral hazard. We consider the extent to which prevented planting claims may be endogenous to prices. We find significant evidence of moral hazard. The likelihood of prevented planting claims increases as the expected market price decreases or as fertilizer costs increase for corn and soybeans in the Prairie Pothole Region and for grain sorghum and cotton in all states.     

基于PSR模型的北京市西北生态涵养区生态健康评价研究

研究目的:作为保障首都生态环境质量与可持续发展的关键区域,北京市西北生态涵养区的生态健康程度反映了生态文明战略部署下首都高质量发展的综合成效。本文通过构建北京市西北生态涵养区健康评价指标体系,评价该区域的生态健康程度,为生态涵养区的可持续发展提供对策建议。研究方法:PSR模型、层次分析法(AHP)。研究结果:(1)基于PSR模型构建的生态健康评价指标体系包括压力、状态和响应系统3个准则层和10个评价指标,涵盖涵养区自然生态和人类活动影响;(2)研究区4个时段的健康指数分别为0.673、0.664、0.650、0.687,生态健康等级为一般。研究结论:北京市西北涵养区生态健康状况较为稳定,在保持西北涵养区建设现有成果的基础上,需要加大生态建设的力度,进一步提高生态健康水平。     

Land use regulation and urban land value: Evidence from China

Land use regulation has always been regarded as one of the most crucial means of macro-control of urban growth, which can affect a city’s land values directly and further determine related urban economic well-being. Since the New Type Urbanization Strategy proposed by the government in 2014, China’s mode of urban growth has been transformed from addressing “quantity” to “quality" in the urbanization process. In this case, the regulation of land use by the Chinese government plays a more important role in urban growth. With their planned land regulatory scheme, the various instruments employed by Chinese governments have quite different mechanisms influencing land prices. However, there are no rigorous studies focusing on the land use regulation system and its impact on land values to date, particular in China. This study seeks to explore how land use regulation affects urban land values through the systematic lens. We summarize the main land use regulatory instruments based on the analysis of China’s planned land use system and urban land banking system, including the construction land quota, constraints on the allowed floor area ratio (FAR) of each land transaction parcel, and land supply restrictions. A new dataset based on land transaction data from 2007 to 2016 that covers 286 prefectural cities from the country’s coastal, central, and western regions is used in the empirical analysis. The results show that the effects of the floor area ratio (FAR) on land values are significant and positive, with the residential and commercial land supply ratio being a key factor. Moreover, the results imply that the effects of constraints on FAR and commercial land supply vary between regions. These findings indicate that the Chinese land market is considerably distorted by excessive administrative interventions by local governments, in the stage of urban transition guided, the capable regulatory instruments could play an important role in adjusting urban land prices and hence impact on urban growth.     

Labor migration and the decoupling of the crop-livestock system in a rural mountainous area: Evidence from Chongqing,China

Massive out-migration of rural labor force brings both challenges and opportunities to crop-livestock integrated production system (crop-livestock system) in smallholder economy. Compared with previous researches that have paid major attention to the effect of labor migration on either crop production or livestock husbandry, this study considers the mediating role of crop production in predicting the effect of labor migration on livestock raising. Our econometric estimation based on a 2012 survey of 974 rural households in Chongqing, a mountainous region of China, showed the following. (1) The massive migration of rural labor force had led to significant increase in farmland abandonment and considerable changes in the pattern of livestock raising. (2) The livestock raising number per household began to differentiate, with the livestock system separating from the traditional crop-livestock system and becoming a specialized business. (3) In terms of the pathways through which rural labor migration exerts impact on livestock raising number, though the increased opportunity costs of rural labor greatly reduced farmers’ willingness to raise livestock, the decoupling of the crop-livestock system partly alleviated the declining trend in the livestock raising number because of the availability of household labor force freed from cropping via farmland abandonment. These findings have important policy implications for rural development and agricultural restructuring in mountainous areas of China, and provide references for other developing countries.     

杭州湾海域水污染演变及污染源分析

以杭州湾海域水环境调查的相关数据为依据,研究杭州湾海域水污染演变及污染源情况。杭州湾海域常年以劣四类海水为主,水质状况极差,部分指标仍有恶化趋势。其主要超标污染物为无机氮和活性磷酸盐,化学需氧量浓度波动较大,但不是杭州湾水污染的主要威胁。从海域污染源来看,从富春江电站上游区域汇入的污染物占比最多;其次是杭州湾沿岸支流河道汇入的污染物;再次是从排海污水处理厂纳入的污染物。     

我国新型农村社会养老保险制度改革探讨

“新农保”缘起于2002年,是农村社会经济发展的必然要求,也是解决农村人口老龄化问题的根本出路,更是统筹城乡发展的现实需要,但该制度在建立过程中存在资金相对缺乏、制度衔接困难、法律法规不完善、基金管理机制不健全等问题,应进一步加强法制建设、实施法律保障,优化制度设计、解决制度碎片化问题,加强政府财政投入力度、夯实物质基础,改进管理方式、提升养老金增值水平。     

风景名胜区国内客源市场动态分析及其意义——以南京钟山风景区为例

随着旅游业的发展,旅游行业的风景名胜区,要通过实地考察和问卷调查等方法,对风景名胜区国内旅游者的构成现状、旅游流强度、空间分布进行动态分析,这样才能为开拓客源市场、调控旅游超载、旅游客流预测等提供建设性意见。     

An evaluation of ecotourism in Amazonas, Brazil

Registered “ecotour” lodges were studied using observation and interviews with visitors, employees, and local people. Findings were evaluated using proposed ecotourism principles. Besides providing employment, lodges improve access, stimulate new services (health utilities, etc.), and make valued but limited local purchases. In other ways, lodges fall short of the ideals inherent in the principles. They contribute little to conservation education, resource protection, or the involvement and empowerment of local people. Tourists wish to see and would support conservation and community development programs both financially and via their future selection of ecotour operators. Numerous implications for concessions, protected area management, and rural development in Amazonas are discussed.